The most-traded SHFE tin contract remained in the doldrums, and tin prices are expected to struggle to show a trending pattern. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On November 4, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract opened lower at 285,500 yuan/mt and remained in the doldrums during the morning trading session. By the midday close, the price hovered around 284,060 yuan/mt, down 1,560 yuan from the previous day's settlement price. Overnight, LME tin closed at $35,915/mt, falling $265, or 0.73%. During today's Asian trading session, it fluctuated around the $36,000/mt mark, with resistance seen near $36,050/mt.

The tin market is currently in a unique phase characterized by tight constraints at the mine end, polarized demand, and a tug-of-war between longs and shorts from a macro perspective. From a macro perspective, the lower-than-expected US PMI data introduced uncertainty, while the US dollar and Treasury yields surged in tandem, putting pressure on dollar-denominated tin prices. Although China-US trade relations have eased, actual tariff adjustments have had a limited impact on tin imports and exports, with the market focusing more on real demand changes. In the short term, the logic of tight supply continues to contend with the reality of weak demand, making it difficult for tin prices to establish a clear trend. Prices are expected to remain in the doldrums intraday, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract likely to trade between 283,000 and 286,000 yuan/mt. Investors should be wary of macro sentiment fluctuations amplifying price volatility and closely monitor the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar and the intensity of downstream restocking for their substantive impact on the supply-demand pattern.